Markets
Fuels for the import markets of the western Indian Ocean
The markets within reach of Salalah import about 1.15 million barrels a day of the products the refinery makes, rising to about 1.25 million by 2040 in the base case. In 2040, phase 1 would need roughly one barrel in ten of its two core pools.
- ≈1.15 mb/dImport requirement within reach, 2025
- ≈1.25 mb/dImport requirement within reach, 2040 (base case)
- 4–5 daysSailing time to East Africa and India
- 4–8 USD/tFreight advantage into East African ports over Gulf refiners
Analyst consolidation of the regional demand research in the market study; base case.
Demand
Demand is large; access is the test
East Africa, the Horn of Africa, South Asia, Oman and the Indian Ocean islands import diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and LPG in volume, much of it supplied today by refineries in the Gulf and India.
Phase 1 therefore competes by displacing incumbent supply through the channels these markets use to buy fuel: government-to-government frameworks, national tenders and term contracts. The study tests margins on 2015–2025 mid-cycle evidence, not on the price spikes of 2026.
Middle East product exports are also growing, which is why the plan rests on contracted offtake rather than on spot sales.
Sales plan
The phase-1 sales book
A planning allocation of the 141.6 kbpd of saleable products by destination, at full rate.
Target markets
Where each product goes
- 01
East Africa
Diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and LPG for import-dependent markets reached through Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, Djibouti and other regional ports, largely through government-to-government frameworks and national tenders.
- 02
South Asia
Diesel, jet fuel and gasoline for national tender and term programmes in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, as three to four anchor contracts.
- 03
Oman and the GCC
Gasoline for Oman’s domestic deficit, about 15 kb/d in the 2025 base case, and regional supply.
- 04
Marine fuels
Low-sulphur marine gasoil drawn from the diesel pool for bunkering, developed as an option alongside third-party fuel oil blending.
- 05
Red Sea and the Horn
Diesel and gasoline for markets on the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa where supply has been disrupted, carried as option value.
- 06
Asian and European hubs
All the naphtha, for petrochemical crackers in North-East Asia, and surplus jet fuel and gasoline, sold at hub parity.
Crude supply
Crude from producers with spare capacity
Phase 1 needs about 135 kb/d at 90% utilisation, about 4% of the effective spare capacity of Gulf producers before the 2026 disruption. Volume is not the constraint; route and contract form are.
Route to market
Capability before the first cargo
- 01
An established marketer
A marketing and offtake agreement with an established marketer that names the refinery as sole source, with at least 90% take-or-pay and government-to-government nominee rights, and the right to take the book in-house at 300,000 bpsd.
- 02
Shipping
About 150 product cargoes a year, carried by six to eight chartered MR-equivalent product tankers.
- 03
Terminals abroad
Leased tankage at East African and Red Sea hubs where it improves market access and payment security.
- 04
People and certification
A commercial, scheduling, credit and shipping team built from 2030, and product certification to the specifications each market names.