Investment
An investment case built on contracts
Phase-1 fixed capital is estimated at USD 9.5 bn (P50), within a range of USD 7.6–12.8 bn. The study proposes an equity-led structure anchored by long-term crude, offtake, gas and service contracts.
- 9.5 USD bnPhase-1 fixed capital, P50
- 7.6–12.8 USD bnP10–P90 range, AACE Class 5 estimate
- 63,300 USDCapital cost per barrel of daily capacity
- 12.1 USD bnPhase-1 funding requirement
- 6.0–6.7 USD bnCash equity at a blended gearing of 45–50%
- 7.3 USD bnSecond train (option B), P50
Screening estimates in real 2026 US dollars from the project basis of 24 October 2026.
Capital cost
Phase-1 fixed capital by package
Funding requirement
From fixed capital to funding requirement
Financing approach
Equity-led, anchored by contracts
The study tests the economics on 2015–2025 mid-cycle margins rather than 2026 disruption prices. On that evidence the project is structured around contracted cash flows, not as a merchant refinery.
- 01
Equity-led
About USD 6.0–6.7 bn of cash equity at a blended gearing of about 45–50%, with debt sized business by business on contracted cash flow.
- 02
Three businesses
A refinery company, a terminal company and a utilities company, so that contracted storage and utility revenues can carry limited-recourse debt.
- 03
An anchor partner
A national oil company crude-supply and offtake partner that provides a margin floor is a requirement of the structure.
- 04
Diversified debt
Export credit cover linked to equipment sourcing, conventional and Islamic commercial tranches, and regional development lenders for the terminal and utilities.
- 05
Gas and services under contract
A tendered gas allocation and long-term contracts for storage, power and steam give the infrastructure businesses predictable revenue.
- 06
No sovereign guarantee
The structure does not request a sovereign guarantee.
Partners
Who the structure is designed for
The equity concept combines several kinds of investor, each matched to the part of the project that suits it.
- The founding sponsors, contributing the development work and, once secured, the land and licence rights
- A strategic national oil company as crude supplier and offtake partner
- Sovereign and government co-investment
- GCC and Asian sovereign and strategic investors
- Infrastructure investors in the terminal and utilities companies
Path to a decision
Nine conditions precedent to the investment decision
- A tendered natural gas allocation of about 2.5 million m³ a day, with pipeline capacity
- A regulatory ruling on captive utilities and the sale of surplus power
- Environment Authority Class A permits for the refinery, storage lease, mooring and export lines
- A marine licence for the single-point mooring
- A Port of Salalah throughput agreement covering a third liquid berth, and consent for LPG export through the existing LPG jetty
- Land rights for the parcel, storage lease, flare site and corridors, and a written reservation of second-train land
- Resettlement gate 2: at least 90% of agreements signed, compensation paid and replacement housing at least half complete
- The petroleum licence for the refinery
- Heads of terms for term crude supply, and contracted offtake for 60–70% of output
Development is funded in milestone tranches with stop rights, so that each commitment follows the evidence that justifies it.
The investor presentation, financing structure and screening financial model are available to qualified investors and lenders on request.